You’ve probably noticed fewer almonds on grocery shelves or seen almond prices going up this year. The recent almond shortage caught many business owners and consumers off guard. Almonds are a staple in kitchens, bakeries, and food factories worldwide. They’re a top protein source for plant-based products and a favorite snack across many cultures. For anyone managing a food business or keeping an eye on commodity markets, understanding this shortage—and what comes next—is vital for planning and stability.
2024 Shortage Causes
Let’s start with the reasons behind the shortage. In the 2023-2024 season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasted a crop of about 2.6 billion pounds. Yet, by harvest time, output fell short, mainly due to unpredictable weather. Late freezes, periods of poor rainfall, and unpredictable swings in temperatures affected almond orchards throughout California, where over 80% of the world’s almonds are grown.
This sudden drop in supply made it harder for U.S. exporters to meet orders. If your business depends on reliable almond shipments—to countries like India, the EU, or China, for instance—you likely experienced delays or had to seek alternatives. Since the U.S. provides the vast majority of almonds traded globally, these weather issues rippled across all continents. Even small production changes in California can disrupt prices, inventory, and order timing around the world.
Higher overall demand contributed as well. More people are choosing plant-based diets, and almond products are used in everything from milk and butter to protein bars. When a smaller crop meets growing demand, something has to give—often, that’s availability or price stability.
Production Projections for 2025
After a tough 2024, what can you expect for 2025? Recent USDA estimates are optimistic. Several reports forecast a record almond crop in California, ranging from 2.8 billion to 3.0 billion pounds for the new season. This would be a 10% jump from last year’s output, so if you’re planning inventory or contract purchases, these numbers are encouraging.
What’s driving these higher projections? Farmers report stronger yields per acre thanks to better weather during pollination and a slight increase in the number of acres in production. It’s also true that orchard management has improved, especially after several challenging seasons. Growers are now better at adjusting irrigation and timing the harvest based on short-term weather data.
However, there are factors that could limit these gains. Some analysts warn that water remains a key risk. California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is forcing some farmers to limit how much groundwater they can use, especially in drought-prone regions. Depending on which county your almonds come from, the new water rules could mean older orchards are pulled out of production or new plantings are reduced. If you buy directly from California growers, it is vital to factor these changes into your long-term supply agreements.
In short, 2025 looks promising, but you’ll want to keep in touch with suppliers about any shifts in their acreage and water access. What’s said in spring forecasts doesn’t always hold true when the harvest rolls in.
Market Impact of the Shortage
This year’s shortage didn’t just affect the farms—it hit the market in several practical ways. First, prices responded quickly. During the supply crunch, almond prices climbed, stretching sourcing budgets for small bakeries or snack companies. But once the USDA announced a record crop for 2025, prices fell—almost 20% in some cases. If you locked in high-price contracts during the shortage, you may be trying to rebalance for upcoming orders.
Keep in mind that even with a good forecast, supply gaps can persist. For certain almond types—like whole natural, sliced, or specific grades—current crop receipts are still a bit below what was expected. If your products require particular sizes or qualities, these spot shortages can linger until the new harvest is processed, cleaned, and ready to ship.
Another area to consider is how inventory and shipments are managed across the year. Almonds harvested in the fall are sold and shipped for many months. The inventory remaining at the end of the season, known as the carry-out supply, helps bridge the gap after harvest. When crop yields fall, carry-out inventory shrinks, leaving less buffer for new orders or last-minute contracts.
Business owners should work closely with distributors to understand shipment timing, especially if you supply seasonal products or large orders. Staying flexible with packaging or product requirements can help maintain consistent supply when spot shortages affect your usual selections.
Environmental Concerns Affecting Supply
If there’s a single factor with the biggest long-term impact on almonds, it’s water. Most almonds come from California’s Central Valley, a region famous both for ideal growing conditions and chronic water shortages. Water policy isn’t just an abstract issue here—it determines how many acres can be planted and how robust each harvest will be.
Recently, California has begun enforcing the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). This law, designed to protect groundwater resources, means many growers face new pumping limits and stricter water usage. Depending on your supplier’s property and region, they may have had to fallow (set aside) certain fields or invest in more efficient irrigation. Some growers, especially those operating on marginal land, are even removing older almond orchards due to water costs or regulatory limits.
Even a year with “average” rainfall may not be enough if groundwater isn’t available. If you rely on consistent almond shipments, check in with your suppliers about the status of their orchards. Ask about water sources and how they plan for drought years. Keep documentation of your agreements so you’re prepared if future shortages cause fulfillment problems.
Another risk is weather volatility. While the 2024-2025 season had generally favorable pollination and rainfall, the risk of heatwaves or late frosts remains. Climate uncertainty can wipe out forecasts made in spring, so it’s wise to review your sourcing plans annually and establish backup options if possible.
How to Manage Almond Supply for Your Business
If almonds are a significant part of your product line, you can take several practical actions:
Diversify suppliers. Source from multiple growers or distributors when possible. If you work regionally, also look at domestic alternatives or stock up on shelf-stable forms when pricing is favorable.
Monitor the market. Track USDA crop forecasts and industry reports. Prices tend to shift rapidly with each update, so set alerts or stay in touch with trade associations.
Plan inventory transitions. Be sure to time your purchases around the harvest and inventory cycles. If you can, order extra before known gap periods or contract for flexible delivery terms.
Stay agile with your offerings. If certain sizes or forms go short, consider switching recipes or labeling to accommodate available grades. Communicate changes to customers ahead of time.
Review contracts. Negotiate clauses for shortfalls or use spot purchasing to hedge against further price swings. Keep all documentation handy and review it annually to confirm your risk management approach.
The Road Ahead for Almonds
Depending on market needs and regulatory changes, almonds will remain both an essential and sometimes unpredictable crop for the near future. Today’s research and industry consensus suggest that the 2024 shortage was largely a temporary consequence of bad weather and increasing demand. Looking to 2025, higher yields and better orchard practices should smooth supply for most buyers, but—and this is crucial—structural issues like water and climate remain in play.
If you are balancing inventory for your business or advising others on sourcing, try not to get locked into a single season’s forecast. Stay alert to new environmental rules and the larger trend of reducing almond acreage in parts of California. Keeping a direct line to your supplier helps you get accurate updates, and joining industry groups keeps you informed when disruptions are first reported.
For further guidance, you can check the latest crop, supply, and regulatory updates using resources such as Redwire Business, which offer news and practical tools for business owners.
Conclusion
To sum up, the recent almond shortage was caused by a combination of poor weather and stronger demand. Supply constraints led to shipment delays, higher prices, and spot shortages in several markets. Recent USDA forecasts show a promising rebound, but it is vital that you account for water policy, evolving California regulations, and climate patterns when making sourcing decisions.
Long-term stability in the almond market will depend on finding solutions for water scarcity and adapting acreage to available resources. As a business owner, staying informed, diversifying suppliers, and keeping flexible inventory plans are your best tools for handling price swings and future shortages.
Review your processes each year, keep documentation of your supplier agreements, and don’t hesitate to reach out to industry sources for advice. With this informed, step-by-step approach, you can manage the ups and downs of almond supply—and keep your business running smoothly, no matter what the market throws your way.
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