The current chicken shortage is a real concern for business owners, restaurant operators, and anyone who works in food service. Stories about empty cooler shelves and climbing chicken wing prices have been common since early last year. If you depend on steady, affordable access for your work or household, you need to know what’s causing these ups and downs—and what you can realistically expect in the months ahead.
Understanding the main drivers means you will be better prepared for further supply hiccups, price swings, or required changes in your purchasing habits. In this guide, we break down exactly why the shortage is happening, how different factors stack up, and practical steps you can consider if your business relies on poultry.
Impact of Avian Influenza
One of the biggest reasons for the chicken shortage right now is recurring avian influenza outbreaks—often called bird flu or HPAI. These outbreaks have hit not just the U.S., but also Europe, South America, and parts of Asia. When bird flu is detected, entire flocks must be culled as a precaution, even if only some birds are infected.
For context, in the U.S. alone, tens of millions of chickens and turkeys have been destroyed since late 2023. That means many farms are running below capacity, processing plants often work with fewer or inconsistent deliveries, and wholesalers stock less inventory in cold storage.
If you run a restaurant, this might show up as more frequent product substitutions, smaller orders being fulfilled, or certain cuts of chicken—like wings or thighs—being hard to get. It is vital to keep an eye on supplier announcements, as outbreaks often lead to sudden changes within weeks, especially during transit-heavy holiday periods.
Rising Production Costs
Another area to consider is the spike in production costs. Feed makes up a huge portion of chicken farming expenses—sometimes over half. When droughts, regional wars, or speculation drive up global grain prices, farmers pay more for corn and soybeans. Since early 2024, extreme weather and unpredictable markets have pushed feed costs up significantly.
Labor shortages make things tougher, too. Processing plants face increased staff turnover, overtime costs, and sometimes have to run limits on hours or shutdowns if enough workers call in sick. Transportation is pricier as well, due to both higher fuel prices and shortages of drivers in some regions.
This increased cost structure doesn’t just disappear. Wholesalers and grocery chains pass it along through higher sticker prices, smaller promotions, or stricter purchasing limits.
Influence of Geopolitical Events
While poultry supply issues are often thought of as local or national, recent geopolitical events are affecting the global market. The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, combined with changing U.S. trade policies, has reduced confidence in cross-border supply chains for poultry and feed.
For example, in early 2025, global analysts lowered projections for world poultry production growth from an expected 2.5–3% down to 2–2.5%. Depending on how conflicts develop or if sanctions are added to specific countries, these growth rates could fall further. This isn’t just a headline—smaller expected increases in supply mean more competition for existing shipments.
If your business imports specialty cuts, organic chicken, or Halal-certified products, be sure to review your contracts and consider extra suppliers. Global events can have ripple effects, causing spot shortages even if the farms closest to you are operating normally.
Supply Normalization and Challenges
By mid-2025, some supermarket shelves are looking fuller again—at least for staple items. U.S. producers have ramped up biosecurity, outbreaks are being handled faster, and some labor shortages have eased. Regular customers may notice their preferred brands or package sizes are more regularly in stock.
However, prices remain higher than in 2022, and many restaurant buyers say availability is “better, but not normal.” There is a continued risk of new outbreaks, and smaller or specialty processors remain vulnerable. For small shops, one missed shipment can mean a week of empty shelves.
It helps to maintain close contact with both your broadline and local suppliers. If you’re seeing frequent substitutions or delivery delays, consider revising your menu, offering chicken as a weekly special, or switching to more flexible order sizes.
Market Adaptations
To deal with an unstable supply, many distributors and retailers are changing how they operate. One pattern is building stronger local supply chains—forming closer relationships with nearby farms to reduce transit risks.
Another adaptation is holding additional inventory in cold storage. While this ties up cash, it can help maintain stock during sudden breaks in supply. Some businesses are also partnering with multiple suppliers, even if their prices differ, to reduce the risk from any one farm or processor being hit by disease or political upheaval.
For example, if you manage a deli, you might split your orders between several suppliers, even if one is a little more expensive. This can help buffer against shortages lasting more than a week or two, especially for high-turnover items like breaded filets or nuggets.
Consumer Response
With higher prices at the register, shoppers are changing how they buy chicken. Many are more price conscious, scanning flyers for weekly specials or buying in bulk when prices dip.
If you run a meal prep service or retail store, you’ve probably seen more requests for substitutions—chicken drumsticks instead of breasts, or switching to frozen from fresh. It can be helpful to post clear signs about product alternatives and keep staff updated on inventory changes.
Some businesses are shrinking portion sizes, offering combo meals with more vegetables, or promoting non-poultry proteins. In areas where supply has improved, bulk deals can help clear inventory, but be sure to communicate clearly if stock could run short again.
Conclusion
Once you understand the factors at work behind the chicken shortage, you are better positioned to adapt and respond. Avian influenza continues to pose a threat through periodic flock losses and supply hiccups. Production costs, particularly for feed and labor, remain well above historic norms and may spike again if weather or fuel markets shift.
Geopolitical instability is another wildcard—conflict zones and new trade rules can disrupt global flows quickly, forcing buyers to scramble. Even as panic buying has faded in many supermarkets, prices are still high compared to three years ago, and supply can be less reliable, especially for specialty products.
The market is learning to adapt, though. Businesses are building smarter local sourcing relationships, keeping more inventory where budgets allow, and diversifying suppliers. Consumers, too, are responding by shopping different cuts, comparing weekly ads more carefully, and sometimes switching meal plans when prices spike unexpectedly.
If your business depends on chicken—whether for a quick-service menu or family packs on store shelves—it is wise to keep flexible. Build a backup plan for ordering, communicate clearly with your team and customers, and monitor updates from local health authorities and suppliers.
Be sure to work closely with vendors and watch for announcements about production, pricing, and shipping changes. Depending on your region, you may wish to join trade groups or consult financial advisors to assess your exposure if shortages linger or new supply shocks hit.
Finally, keep an eye on solutions that may reduce risk in the future, such as investment in local hatcheries, automation in processing, or long-term contracts with trusted suppliers. For more tips and up-to-date business strategies, you can refer to RedWire Business as a resource.
Ongoing challenges remain, but with careful planning and informed choices, you can protect your operations from the worst impacts of the chicken supply shortage. As conditions shift, a little foresight and flexibility will keep you ready for whatever comes next in this unpredictable market.
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