If you’ve ordered printing supplies or packaging for your business in the last two years, you’ve likely come across delivery delays or price hikes. The reason is the global paper shortage that affected everyone from publishers to packaging suppliers. This shortage developed rapidly, and many small businesses had to rethink their print and packaging strategies just to keep up.
This article will walk you through the key drivers behind the shortage, how it unfolded, what it means for businesses like yours, and what to expect going forward. By understanding the root causes and recent changes in the paper market, you can make informed decisions about your print needs, budgeting, and supplier relationships.
1. Factors Behind Reduced Supply
The global paper shortage didn’t happen overnight. Multiple forces came together in a way that caught even experienced buyers off guard. If you’re sourcing paper, it’s important to understand these factors before making any decisions about contracts or inventory levels.
Shift in Production Capacity
In 2020, many paper mills in Europe and North America drastically reduced their production. Some mills even stopped making printing paper altogether and switched to producing packaging materials. This was driven mostly by the early days of the pandemic, when events were canceled and offices closed, slashing demand for print. At the same time, online shopping surged, boosting the need for cardboard and packing paper. It’s vital to know that shifting a paper mill’s output isn’t easy or quick. Once a mill starts making packaging, it’s much harder for it to switch back to printing grades on short notice.
Impact of Supply Chain and Logistics Issues
Getting paper from the mill to your warehouse is always a complex task, but the past few years made it much harder. Shipping delays, a shortage of containers, higher import costs, and even energy price spikes meant that even mills with available product struggled to deliver on time. For many small businesses, it meant that orders took much longer and came with unexpected surcharges.
Labor Challenges and Mill Closures
Labor is another area to consider if you rely on paper. Strikes at major mills, such as the Finnish PaperMakers Union, brought output to a halt in 2022. On top of this, some permanent closures resulted in a net loss of overall North American and European paper capacity. If your supplier told you they couldn’t fulfill your order or suddenly quoted a higher price, these labor-related slowdowns were often the cause.
Demand Changes During and Post-Pandemic
During the first wave of the pandemic, everyone expected printing and writing paper demand to fall. That’s exactly what happened, but the dip was short-lived. As schools, offices, and stores reopened, publishers and marketers quickly ramped up print projects. Paper mills found themselves unable to scale production back up fast enough. The result? Orders far outpaced supply, and backlogs grew.
Environmental and Resource Pressures
While supply chain or labor stories might grab headlines, there’s a longer-term challenge you should factor in—sourcing the raw materials itself. Deforestation concerns, legal limits on wood sourcing, and rules around water usage have all added barriers for paper producers. If you operate in an industry with strong sustainability commitments, be aware these resource pressures can make reliable sourcing more difficult or expensive.
2. Consequences of the Shortage
Now that you know why the paper shortage happened, it’s helpful to look at direct consequences for businesses like yours. Whether you print catalogs, send direct mail, or rely on shipping boxes, the squeeze on paper supply has affected day-to-day operations for organizations of all sizes.
Price Increases Across Paper Grades
The first and most obvious impact was the price. Across several grades, prices jumped by 30-50%. Uncoated printing papers, newsprint, and specialty items saw some of the steepest climbs. If you planned a large print run in 2022, you could have easily paid double what you did in 2020 for the same volume. Many suppliers moved to quarterly rather than annual contracts just to manage their risk.
Effect on Industries Reliant on Print
Certain industries felt the pinch more than others. Publishers had to scale back magazines or push issues online. Small businesses that relied on mailers to reach customers were forced to cut print runs or seek alternatives. In many cases, print campaigns stalled because it simply wasn’t possible to secure the paper or stay within budget. Even local governments reported delays in mailing tax information and ballots.
Focus Shift to Packaging Papers
There’s another trend you may have noticed. As mills shifted output to packaging papers (due to growth in e-commerce), businesses looking for packaging had an easier time sourcing boxes than those seeking book or brochure paper. If you sell online and need branded boxes or void-fill materials, you probably found suppliers more willing to prioritize packaging over printing grades. However, this shift meant even fewer resources available for traditional print jobs.
3. Recent Developments and the Current Market
The worst of the paper shortage seems to be over, but the market hasn’t fully returned to normal. If you’re wondering whether now is a good time to resume postponed projects or sign longer-term supply contracts, take these updates into account.
Improvement in Paper Supply
As of late 2023 and early 2024, paper supply chains have started to recover. This is driven less by a surge in production and more by a natural cooling off in demand. High inventories, especially of uncoated paper, have absorbed much of the immediate pressure. Some mills have brought small amounts of production back online, but not enough to match the pre-pandemic landscape.
Cooling Demand and Market Stabilization
For many, the improvement in paper supply is a mixed blessing. Demand for paper, especially for office and publishing, has stabilized at lower levels compared to pre-2020. If you budget carefully and maintain good supplier relationships, you may be able to lock in prices or secure volume discounts again. Review your needs quarterly and give your suppliers as much lead time as possible, as some back orders can still occur, especially for specialty items.
Current Production Capacity Versus Pre-Pandemic Levels
It’s useful to compare today’s production with what was available before 2020. Despite some stabilization, neither North American nor European facilities have returned to their old output. Many of the mills that retooled for packaging or closed entirely have not reversed these decisions. As a small business, it’s practical to plan for continued tightness in specialty and higher-quality print papers for the foreseeable future.
4. Ongoing Challenges in the Paper Industry
Even as you see more print options reappear on supplier catalogs, deeper industry challenges remain. It’s helpful to stay aware of these, especially if long-term contracts or sustainability certifications are part of your procurement process.
Cost Issues and Sustainability Concerns
Don’t expect prices to drop back to 2019 levels anytime soon. Rising energy costs, compliance with environmental standards, and grade-specific shortages mean you should budget carefully. If your business is working toward green certifications or needs FSC- or PEFC-certified paper, communicate your requirements well in advance. Some certified grades are still in short supply, so timing is critical.
Regulatory Pressures on Sourcing and Production
Depending on your industry or location, new regulations could soon affect your paper sourcing. Europe, for example, continues to introduce stricter rules on deforestation and water usage. The US and Canada may follow suit, especially around recycled fiber content. Keep documentation of your supply chain approvals and annual reviews so you can respond to changes or audits efficiently.
Innovations and Adaptations for Future Resilience
Some mills and suppliers are adapting in ways that may help you in the future. Increased use of recycled fiber, better energy management, and more transparent supplier communication are a few trends to watch. If you’re looking to reduce risk, consider partnering with suppliers who prioritize transparency and adaptability. You may also want to explore digital alternatives for some communication, especially if short-term disruptions reappear.
5. Practical Tips for Small Business Owners and Entrepreneurs
This experience has highlighted the value of adaptability and preparedness for business owners. Whether you run a print shop, manage direct mail marketing, or simply rely on packaging, a few specific steps can help you move forward with confidence.
First, review your paper usage and identify which grades are most vital to your business. Next, open a conversation with your supplier about expected availability and potential substitutes. Be sure to keep backup options, especially for time-sensitive print runs or legal documents. Consider digital formats for non-critical materials if uncertainty remains.
If you have a sustainability policy or commitments, ask your supplier for their most up-to-date certifications and lead times. Communicate your needs as far in advance as possible. This will help both you and your supplier meet deadlines and compliance requirements.
Where possible, join industry groups or forums related to print supply so you can stay ahead of new trends and emerging issues. Regularly reviewing your contracts and inventory levels will help you respond quickly if disruptions return. If you need guidance or a reliable business resource for adapting to ongoing supply chain shifts, Redwire Business is a helpful place to learn best practices and solutions other businesses are using.
Conclusion
The paper shortage that began in 2021 was not the result of any single problem, but rather a series of interconnected challenges. Reduced production capacity, persistent labor and logistics issues, sudden shifts in demand, and ongoing environmental pressures all contributed. For small business owners and entrepreneurs, the outcome has been higher costs, delays, and shifting best practices across print and packaging.
Today, while supply availability has improved, the challenges have not disappeared. Instead, smart business owners are taking a more strategic and flexible approach to sourcing and budgeting for print. Look closely at your critical needs, adjust procurement timelines, and keep communication open with your suppliers. Pay close attention to regulatory and environmental changes as they can influence both cost and eligibility requirements.
By staying informed and prepared, you can minimize future disruptions and take advantage of emerging opportunities—whether that’s exploring more sustainable materials or seeking new digital alternatives for reaching your customers. Once you have implemented these strategies, review your processes every quarter, and don’t hesitate to reach out to business support networks for shared insights and solutions. This methodical, proactive approach is the key to stable operations, even as the paper industry continues to shift.
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