Turkey is usually a safe bet during holiday gatherings in the U.S., especially around Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, if you’ve found it difficult to get turkey at your local grocery store or noticed price spikes, you’re not alone. The United States is facing a significant turkey meat shortage, marked by reduced availability and higher costs.
It’s important to clarify that when hearing about a “Turkey shortage” in recent news, much of it refers to the meat shortage in the U.S., not a shortage in the country Turkey itself. Meanwhile, the nation of Turkey is facing its own unrelated agricultural concerns—especially with hazelnut supply, not poultry.
Let’s break down what’s causing the U.S. turkey shortage, what it means for you or your business, and how the agricultural scene in Turkey (the country) fits in.
2. Causes of the Turkey Meat Shortage in the USA
The shortage of turkey in American stores and supply chains isn’t due to a single issue. Various factors have come together to create a tighter market for turkey meat. Each has different implications for grocery buyers, food businesses, and consumers.
2.1. Reduced Production Levels
One direct cause is a drop in production at the poultry farms. Recent reports show egg inventories in incubators reached the lowest figures since 1988. This means farmers are placing fewer fertilized eggs, known as poults, into hatcheries. As a result, the number of young turkeys entering the production process is down.
Why does this matter? Poults placed in summer 2024 will become the turkeys available for holiday meals in 2025. With an 18% reduction in newly hatched birds, both processors and stores will feel this decrease in the next 12-18 months. If you’re in food service, plan your turkey orders carefully and expect continued tight supply.
2.2. Avian Influenza Outbreaks (HPAI)
Another area to consider is avian influenza, specifically the recent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). If you’ve never tracked animal diseases before, HPAI is a contagious bird flu virus. When it appears on a farm, entire turkey flocks may be lost to stop the virus from spreading.
Since 2022, outbreaks have caused several multi-million bird losses. This translates to less turkey meat going to stores, restaurants, and export markets. In some years, over 5 million turkeys had to be euthanized or died due to these outbreaks. Producers hit by the disease may take time—often months or longer—to recover. The effect lingers through the supply chain.
In addition to lost birds, HPAI has forced some U.S. processors to halt exports. With these channels blocked, competitors now focus solely on the domestic market, making local supply even more contested.
2.3. Rising Input Costs: Feed, Labor, and Operations
Rising expenses impact every step of the food process, and turkey farming is no exception. In the past two years, the main costs for producers—feed, energy, labor, and health protocols—have increased sharply. Corn, soy, and other feed ingredients now cost more, and energy for heating barns is pricier than before.
This puts turkey businesses in a bind. Either they reduce flock size to save costs, or they raise prices to cover expenses. For small business buyers and restaurants, it is vital to monitor these shifts since turkey could stay expensive for some time, depending on region and distribution.
2.4. Supply Chain and Processor Pressures
When supply gets tight, logistics and sourcing become even greater challenges. Reports show that buyers are scrambling to secure both whole turkeys and specialty cuts. Frozen parts are particularly scarce, and smaller businesses sometimes have trouble getting firm price quotes or consistent delivery dates.
Due to ongoing HPAI restrictions, processors who can no longer export overseas now compete for domestic buyers. This makes the U.S. wholesale market more unpredictable. Be sure to confirm your supply contracts and backup vendors as early as possible—especially ahead of key holidays.
3. Impact on Fresh and Frozen Turkey Availability
The effect of the U.S. turkey shortage shows up differently depending on the type of turkey you’re trying to source.
If you’re looking for **fresh turkey**—especially for major holidays—expect reduced availability and higher prices at major retailers and food distributors. Fresh turkeys are directly affected by smaller flocks and the drop in hatchlings.
The **frozen turkey** situation is a bit more stable. As of June 2024, frozen whole hen turkey stockpiles are actually up 16% compared to last year. This is partly because of efforts to keep inventory ready for shortages or the market cooling on turkey after price spikes in 2023.
For consumers or food businesses, this means you might have better luck buying frozen turkey well in advance versus depending on fresh options. If your menu or business depends on specialty turkey cuts, check with suppliers early, as these remain in very short supply.
4. Global Trade Adjustments Due to the Shortage
Turkey meat shortages don’t just affect U.S. dinner tables—they ripple through the global trade system. With domestic supplies of turkey and eggs down, American companies have increased imports of both. The U.S. now brings in more eggs from other nations—including Turkey (the country)—to fill gaps the avian flu has created.
When processors can’t ship turkey abroad due to health restrictions, these meat products are either redirected locally or frozen to preserve inventory. International buyers also look for alternative poultry sources, shifting global pricing and supply. Food businesses that import eggs or processed turkey should keep a close eye on global trends and import rules, as they may see further changes in both prices and supply times.
5. Agricultural Context in Turkey (the Country)
If your business works internationally or you’ve come across headlines about “shortages in Turkey,” it is vital to separate the issues at play.
Recent agricultural challenges in Turkey focus on **hazelnuts**, which make up a huge share of the global supply. Frosts and dry weather this year have damaged crops, leading to much lower yields for local farmers. This matters for confectionery, baking, and nut processors, but not for poultry meat.
There’s no evidence of any shortage of turkey meat (the bird) within Turkey, the nation. Turkey continues its regular domestic poultry output, unaffected by the issues currently affecting U.S. producers.
Keep documentation of your supply discussions—especially if your business sources both Turkish hazelnuts and turkey meat—so you can navigate import paperwork and compliance faster next season.
6. Conclusion: Key Takeaways and Practical Steps
The current **turkey meat shortage in the United States** is the result of several overlapping problems. Reduced poult placement, low egg inventories, and recent avian flu outbreaks have shrunk flock sizes and limited both domestic and export supply. Higher feed and energy costs have pushed prices up and forced farms to cut back on their flocks.
If you buy turkeys for a small restaurant, retail store, or catering business, plan well ahead—especially for fresh products near major holidays. Consider reserving frozen turkeys early, as they are less likely to run out, given higher inventories. For specialty cuts or processed turkey, be proactive with suppliers about lead times, alternatives, and pricing updates.
On the global front, U.S. importers have reacted by sourcing eggs and other poultry products from abroad, including Turkey (the country). The hazelnut-related headlines from Turkey, however, should not be confused with the U.S. turkey meat shortage—they’re separate issues in the global agricultural system.
It’s smart to keep organized records of your orders and update contacts with trusted suppliers. Review food safety certifications annually and maintain communication with wholesalers about anticipated supply fluctuations. For more actionable insights into business supply chain management, you can review tips and trends at Redwire Business, which offers practical supply chain advice for small and growing businesses.
Depending on your region or business size, you may feel the turkey shortage more—or less—acutely. Either way, understanding the root causes and planning accordingly puts you ahead of surprise shortages down the road. Once you have secured your key supplies and reviewed backup options, you can approach upcoming business seasons with more confidence and less worry about what you’ll find in the cold case.
In summary, stay proactive and informed, and your business or holiday table will remain on steady ground—even in the face of a national turkey shortage.
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